Weekly Market Report 8/10/15

| August 10 2015

Links to recent informative articles on precious metals and rare coins:

Perth Mint & U.S. Mint Cannot Meet Demand as Gold Bullion Demand Surges

Gold American Eagle bullion sales in July more than double June’s total

This Week’s Headlines:

Gold
Silver
Rare Coin Report
U.S. Mint sold out of 2015 Gold High Relief
Recommended Investment Commitment and Diversification

GOLD

Gold closed at $1,094.10 on Friday, down $1 from the week before. More importantly is that Gold is consolidating in the current price range, trading between $1,085.60 and $1,094.10 per ounce all five trading days last week. Gold’s high/low range last week was only $8.50, never closing or trading above the important resistance level of $1,100 per ounce.

Trading volume for Gold futures contracts continues to remain very strong (particularly for a summer month) on the commodity exchanges around the globe. Every time Gold drops down to the $1,080 area, I see increasing bids for large quantities of contracts and the price moves up quickly. But, when the Gold price reaches the $1,100 per ounce area, I see short term profit taking combined with professional short selling. It is truly a tug-of-war between the Gold bulls and bears, with the winner establishing the short term direction of the Gold price.

If the bears win and Gold breaks below $1,080, we should see $1,044 per ounce and possibly a 6-year low of $1,000 per ounce based on some margin call selling. I think that is the worst scenario. If the bulls gain control of the market with a confirmed rally above $1,100 this should result in short covering, quickly driving the price up to $1,150 per ounce. If that happens, many of the professional traders may change their trading strategy and start buying on dips, giving the Gold price the help it needs to continue the rally to $1,200 and above.

Whether the bulls or the bears gain control of the market, I believe the market will bottom out this year because the fundamentals have never looked better:

Physical demand for Gold and Silver investment products is at the strongest level in years.
Worldwide quantitative easing (money printing), in the U.S., China, Japan, and Europe is increasing at an unbelievable rate.
Gold Mine production is falling dramatically as the cost of production is higher than spot Gold.
Central Banks continue to trade their U.S. Dollars for Gold, thus building their Gold reserves.
Stockpiles of Gold in exchanges and depositories continue to drop to fill consumer demand.

There are always short term price anomalies in all markets, but in the end the market fundamentals always win out. I believe that whether the bulls or the bears win the Gold price war for the short term, we will see the end of the Gold’s bear market this year. Based on the current fundamentals and an extraordinary risk to reward ratio, I recommend adding to your Gold and Silver holdings as soon as possible and enjoying the ride in the coming years.

Today: Gold traded down to $1,089 per ounce in early trading. Gold found excellent support and demand at that level and quickly rallied back to the $1,110 area. It appears that many of the short sellers are covering their sales.

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SILVER

Last Friday Silver closed at $14.82 per ounce, up $0.08 for the week. Silver is also consolidating between the $14.51 and $14.82 per ounce range. Silver was unable to move above the important $15 per ounce resistance level last week. When Silver did reach $14.99 per ounce on Friday, the trading volume increased and short term traders took profits or shorted the market.

Today: In early trading Silver reached a high of $15.01 per ounce, but quickly sold off to $14.90 on good volume. Now, Silver has rebounded, reaching a high of $15.45 per ounce, and will hopefully stay above $15.00 with active trading.

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Rare Coin Report

I am presently in Chicago, Illinois attending the American Numismatic Association World’s Fair of Money. This is the largest rare coin convention of the year. This convention gives me the opportunity to meet with my peers from around the world and discuss rare coin and precious metal markets. I will be talking with dealers, market analysts, and professional commodity traders to discuss their views of supply and demand for the precious metals and the different series of rare coins, as well as the multitude of reasons for being bullish or bearish on the different markets. I will share many of those opinions with you in my upcoming Weekly Market Reports.

In recent conversations at the convention it is becoming clear that the global shortage for physical precious metal investment products is becoming more serious than earlier this year. Many of the world’s major mints cannot keep up with demand, and premiums on many of the freshly minted bullion Gold, Silver, and Platinum coins have increased.

The Coin Dealer Newsletter, a 50 year old weekly price guide was sold last week to John Feigenbaum and a group of investors. I will provide more information about the future direction of this popular publication as it becomes available.

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U.S. Mint sold out of 2015 Gold High Relief

On July 30, 2015 at 12 noon Eastern time, the U.S. Mint started accepting orders for the 2015 High Relief Gold coins. This U.S. Gold coin has a denomination of $100 and contains one troy ounce of .9999 24-Karat Gold. It has a lustrous high relief surface, and a classic American Gold coin design. The mintage is limited to 50,000 from the West Point Mint. This is the first High Relief Gold coin since the 2009 Ultra High Relief, which will increase the 2009 demand. The 2015 High Relief was released on July 30, 2015.

Within the first 75 minutes after orders opened, the U.S. Mint sold 30,000 coins. At that point the U.S. Mint stopped accepting orders and put ’Currently Unavailable’ on the website. Although the U.S. Mint hadn’t reached the mintage limit, it is believed they sold out of available coins. The U.S. Mint’s website now currently shows the 2015 High Relief as ’Back Order’. The remaining 20,000 coins will probably not receive the First Strike or Early Release holders from the grading services.

Our company was successful in ordering the 2015 High Reliefs and we were able to offer a pre-sale to our clients for a limited time. We are now waiting to receive our allocation and submit them to PCGS and NGC for grading. We are hoping to receive our MS70 First Strikes from PCGS and MS70 Early Releases from NGC between August 30 - September 15, 2015, but it is up to the U.S. Mint and the grading services now.

We are currently accepting requests for 2015 High Relief coins graded PCGS MS70 First Strike and NGC MS70 Early Release, and expect to reopen sales immediately after we receive the grading results from both PCGS and NGC. If you are interested in MS70 First Strikes or Early Releases, please e-mail or call us to let us know. We expect to receive our coins submitted to PCGS and NGC later this month, and will immediately ship them to our clients. Thank you.

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Recommended Investment Commitment and Diversification:

Precious Metal commitment: Minimum of 45% of investment capital

Diversification: Gold 45%, Silver 45%, Platinum & Palladium 10%

Diversification includes 50% in long term investment quality rare coins and 50% short term bullion products

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If you want to be updated on what is happening in the Gold, Silver, and Rare Coin markets any weekday, our company offers a daily blog Monday through Friday at www.stupplerblog.com

All statements, opinions, pricing, and ideas herein are believed to be reliable, truthful and accurate to the best of the Stuppler & Company’s knowledge at this time. Stuppler & Company disclaims and is not liable for any claims or losses which may be incurred by third parties while relying on information published herein. Individuals should not look at this publication as giving finance or investment advice or information for their individual suitability. All readers are advised to independently verify all representations made herein or by its representatives for your individual suitability before making your investment or collecting decisions.

Categories: Weekly Market Report