Weekly Market Report 9/21/15
Links to recent informative articles on precious metals and rare coins:
Silver Is Becoming Scarce Worldwide For Purchase
Gold: Major Trend Change Has Occurred
Gold
Moment of Truth for the price of Gold
COMEX Gold warehouse inventories at critically low levels
Silver
Recommended Investment Commitment and Diversification
Last Wednesday the U.S. Labor Department reported that the consumer price index fell 0.1% in August. This surprise drop in the U.S. inflation rate, combined with Asian and European economic uncertainty, led to the Federal Reserve’s decision not to raise interest rates. The Fed made their announcement last Thursday and this was very bullish news for Gold and Silver.
Gold reached a two week high of $1,142 per ounce in early Asian trading last Friday. Considering the weakness of the U.S. Dollar and the Dow dropping almost 300 points late last week, I would have liked to see Gold move above the $1,150 per ounce resistance level. Gold did close at $1,137.80 last Friday, up $34.50 (3.13%) for the week. This is the highest closing price for Gold in the past four weeks.
Today: This morning Gold is trading in a healthy narrow $10 high/low price range. Gold reached $1,140 in early trading and then sold off to $1,130 per ounce on short term profit taking.
Moment of Truth for the price of Gold
I believe we are quickly going to see the moment of truth for the 2015-16 direction of the Gold price. If we see Gold close below $1,100 per ounce multiple times within the next few weeks, we will probably test the 2015 low of $1,072 and that could be ugly, or the final clean out, before the new bull market appears. However, if Gold can move above the $1,150 per ounce resistance level and close multiple days on good volume, that could cause the professional traders to start buying Gold on dips. That would confirm a change in Gold’s four-year bearish trend and the start of the road back to a new high of over $1,900 per ounce.
COMEX Gold warehouse inventories at critically low levels
I have provided a link to an interesting and informative article on the state of physical Gold inventories stored by the N.Y. COMEX. This article suggests that COMEX Gold warehouse inventories are at critically low levels, to the point that there are serious concerns in the ability of the COMEX to provide physical Gold on contracts which request it. Read the article at: http://www.mintstategold.com/investor-education/cat/news/post/comex_is_big_lie/
After the Federal Reserve’s interest rate statement on Thursday, Silver started a major move higher. Silver quickly moved above the $15 per ounce resistance level and reached a high of $15.44 on Friday. After seeing some short term profit taking, Silver closed on Friday at $15.16, up $0.66 per ounce for the week on excellent trading volume. $15.66 is the next resistance level for Silver.
Physical demand for Silver investment products (i.e., 1oz Silver Trade Units and 1oz American Silver Eagles) continues to be strong worldwide. The U.S. Mint almost reached the 5 million production mark for the U.S. 1oz .999 Silver Eagles in August. The actual mintage of Silver Eagles was 4,935,000 coins for August 2015. Compared to the 2,087,500 Silver Eagles produced in August 2014, that’s an almost 150% increase in Silver Eagle production, yet the U.S. Mint still cannot satisfy Silver Eagle demand. In the face of increasing demand it appears that the U.S. Mint cannot source enough blanks to mint another 5 million Silver Eagles in September.
The Silver to Gold ratio is at 75-to-1.
Today: Silver sold off with Gold in early trading, reaching a low of $15.08 per ounce in Asian markets. Silver quickly rallied from the lows, reaching a high of $15.27 on fresh buying.
Recommended Investment Commitment and Diversification:
Precious Metal commitment: Minimum of 30% of investment capital
Diversification: Gold 50%, Silver 40%, Platinum & Palladium 10%
Diversification includes 50% in long term investment quality rare coins and 50% short term bullion products
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