Macro Forces Outweigh Geopolitics As Gold Drops $500

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Last week was the ugliest week ever for Gold investors, with Gold dropping $520 per ounce, closing the week at $4,492 on extraordinarily high trading volume.

The Iranians are causing an energy shortage by destroying the energy infrastructure in many of the world’s leading oil/gas producing countries. This, combined with the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, is causing record-high gasoline prices and the possibility of a worldwide depression.

History shows that wars normally lead to increased buying of Gold as a safe-haven. However, higher energy prices and the possibility of higher interest rates, supported by a recent sharp increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI), have led to Gold’s $520 drop last week. In the near term, a stronger U.S. dollar and Gold’s high liquidity have made Gold an excellent source of funds during the recent selling situation.

The damage done by Iranian drones and missiles to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia's oil and gas production will be costly. These countries have been major Gold buyers in the past and hold significant amounts of Gold in their central banks. The cost to rebuild their destroyed energy infrastructure could lead to a possible sale of that Gold and definitely will curtail Gold buying in the next few years. I believe we will hear in the near future that a major Central bank sold Gold during this recent period.

The World Gold Council has reported that Central Bank purchases have dropped from 2025 levels. Many countries have been focused more on using their funding for military equipment for self-defense than on Gold.

Gold started 2026 at $4,325 per ounce, and it’s a strong possibility that Gold could test that support level before turning around. I believe this major correction in the Gold price is an incredible buying opportunity. I believe the U.S. Debt is heading substantially higher, and the U.S. Dollar, by year-end, will be much lower.

Today: While I was watching Gold trade last night and early this morning in Australia, China, India, and London, the price traded between $4,098 and $4,535. As Gold trading reached the U.S. Gold was trading at the $4,400 per ounce level. This trading range is extraordinary, and I see it as Gold bottoming out.

Last week, Silver closed at $67.55 per ounce, down $12.90, an in creditable 16%. 2026 started with Silver at $70.13, and the lowest Silver has been this year was $64.58 last Thursday. The recent volatility in Silver trading makes it very difficult to see a support level. Based on 2025 trading, it appears that $60 is likely to be the long-term support level for Silver.

Today: Silver reached a low last night in overseas trading at $60.89, an incredible drop, but rallied back in London and the U.S. with strong buying. If Silver can move back above the $70 level, it would be healthy for the market.

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Barry Stuppler has been a professional numismatist for over 60 years and is considered one the nation’s foremost experts in rare coins and precious metals. Mr. Stuppler is a past President of the American Numismatic Association (ANA) and Professional Numismatists Guild (PNG). He is currently chairman of the Federal and California State Gold & Silver Political Action Committees, and president of the
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