Congress Abolishes The Debt Ceiling Leading To Higher Gold/Silver
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Gold broke the $1,400 per ounce barrier on June 24th and for the month of July has traded between $1,402 to $1,447 per ounce. That is classic precious metal base building in the face of a strong U.S. Dollar index. CME trading volume on the popular August 100oz Gold contract remains strong, surprising considering we are in the summer months. Professional traders are looking forward to the Federal Reserve announcement this week on lowering interest rates.
Central Bank Gold buying for the first six months of this year is beginning to hit the market and most are at record high levels.
Today: Gold opened this morning at $1,419 per ounce, unchanged from last week. For most of the day Gold traded between $1,414 to $1,423 per ounce as it continues to build a base for the next breakout.
On Tuesday, July 23rd, 2019, President Trump and Speaker Nancy Pelosi reached an agreement to abolish the debt ceiling for two years. This legislation passed the house and is scheduled to pass the Senate this week and will be signed by the President. It will increase the 2011 Budget Control Act caps by $320 billion. The committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates passage of this budget deal will add $4.1 trillion to the national debt. This deal allows Trump to give $16 Billion to aid farmers affected by the Chinese trade tariffs. Plus, it gives him funds to build the wall and increase military funding and Aid-to-Vets programs. Pelosi eliminated planned cuts in entitlement budgets and gets a serious bump in spending for domestic programs, including Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, while providing funds for current environmental issues.
This will lead to run-away spending, higher inflation and an explosion in precious metal and rare coin prices. I’m now raising my 2019 year-end precious metal prediction to Gold $1,600 per ounce and $18 for Silver. Also, based on the rarity I’m looking for a 10-25% increase in investment quality rare coins.
On July 1st, Silver closed at $15.11 per ounce. Last Friday, Silver closed at $16.34 per ounce, an increase of $1.21 (8%). The Silver-to-Gold ratio has moved from 93-to-1 to 86.56-to-1. During that four-week period, trading volume hit extraordinarily high levels. For months I was talking about the weakness of Silver and how professional traders were making money shorting Silver on rallies and covering on sell-offs. Since Silver has been trading above the important $16 per ounce level for the past seven trading days, many of those traders have become believers.
Right now, Silver is in a trading range between $16.15 and $16.50 per ounce, and this is healthy for the short and long-term rally. I gave it a 30% chance of testing the important $16 support level, but I believe it’s more likely that Silver will move above the $16.50 level in August.
Today: Silver continues to consolidate its recent gains, staying between $16.30 to $16.42 per ounce. This week’s Federal Reserve announcement about a reduction in interest rates should be bullish for Silver and Gold.
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