Weekly Market Report 04/14/14

This Week’s Headlines:

Gold
Federal Reserve Minutes Drive Gold Higher
India Gold Import Duty Could Be Reduced
The April 2014 CoinStats is Now Available
Silver
Recommended Investment Commitment and Diversification

GOLD

Gold stayed above the important $1,300 per ounce level the last four trading days of last week. Gold closed last Friday at $1,319 per ounce, up $15.50 with active trading.

Last Thursday, the Gold price was up $14.60 partly due to the increasing conflict in Eastern Ukraine when pro-Russians occupied government buildings. These Separatists were demanding a referendum on federalization. Russian President Putin put pressure on Ukraine by banning many agricultural goods and increasing natural gas prices by a phenomenal 80%.

Today, Gold jumped to a three-week high, reaching $1,331 per ounce, as mounting tensions over the weekend in Ukraine curbed investor appetite for risk, boosting Gold’s appeal as a safe haven asset.

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Federal Reserve Minutes Drive Gold Higher

In the Federal Reserve minutes released last Wednesday, April 9th, the Fed played down forecasts by some of its own policy makers saying that interest rates might increase faster than they had previously predicted. “Several participants noted that the increase in the median projection overstated the shift in the projections,” according to the minutes of the March 18-19 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee released today. Some analysts have expressed concern that last month’s rate forecasts “could be misconstrued as indicating a move by the committee to a less accommodative reaction function.” This news also contributed to last Thursday’s $14.60 per ounce Gold increase.

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India Gold Import Duty Could Be Reduced

In India, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s prime ministerial candidate, Narendra Modi, who is strongly supported by India’s jewelry and bullion associations, will likely win the election, making the reduction of import duty on Gold more likely. He is widely believed to be able to push industrial reforms and more foreign direct investment into India, which bodes well for Indian wealth and therefore the demand for Gold.

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SILVER

The price of Silver traded from $19.60 to $20.40 per ounce all of last week. Many of the professional traders were shorting (selling) Silver 5,000 CME contracts when Silver crossed $20.15 per ounce. These traders covered those short sales by buying back the contracts when Silver traded below $19.90. This trade proved to be profitable for the professionals. Silver has recently been taking its price direction from Gold, with $20 per ounce continuing to be a major resistance level for Silver.

The Silver to Gold Ratio is now at 66.13 to one.

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The April 2014 CoinStats is Now Available

Our numismatic CoinStats report is the best investment tool for rare coin investors. CoinStats is an in-depth statistical analysis of popular rare coin series that allows you to identify the best values in certified rare coins. I am proud to offer this unique and informative tool exclusively to our clients. The April 2014 CoinStats update is now available for $20 Gold Saint Gaudens, $20 Gold Liberties, Morgan & Peace Silver Dollars, and the Walking Liberty Half Dollar series.

The CoinStats Report provides a list of my recommended certified U.S. Gold and Silver coins which are found listed on the Best Value page. These are PCGS/NGC Certified MS63 or higher Gold and Silver U.S. rare coins, dated prior to 1936, that have a proven track record of appreciation and also offer excellent liquidity. To receive the latest CoinStats analysis, just insert CoinStats in the subject line and email me which of the five series you would like to see.

Also for 2014, I am happy to announce that I have increased the CoinStats analysis by adding a new column that shows the increase in the PCGS/NGC population for over the past five years. Investors realize that the PCGS/NGC population does increase, but comparing the percentage of that increase is an important component in the selection of undervalued Gold and Silver rare coins.

What is surprising? Some of the five year population results in the CoinStats report show that some coins have actually declined over that period. How could this happen? There are a number of legitimate reasons that a PCGS and/or NGC certified coin could have a lower population in a five year period.

1. The coin could have been cracked out of its holder and re-submitted, but the owners never sent in the old certificate to the grading service so it could be deducted.
2. The coin could have been upgraded or crossed and the owner never sent in the certificate.
3. Because the new PCGS/NGC Plus grades are not yet incorporated into the CoinStats numbers, the coin may now have a Plus grade. (Plus grades will be added to CoinStats when the quantities increase)

Because I believe that CoinStats is one of the best tools for rare coin collectors and investors to recognize great value, I will continue to look for ways to provide more important information. Your input on CoinStats is always appreciated.

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Recommended Investment Commitment and Diversification:

Precious Metal commitment: Minimum of 40% of investment capital

Diversification:  Gold 50%, Silver 45%, Platinum & Palladium 5%

Diversification includes 50% in long term investment quality rare coins and 50% short term bullion products

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REMEMBER THE BLOG

If you want to be updated on what is happening in the Gold, Silver, and Rare Coin markets any weekday, our company offers a daily blog Monday through Friday at www.stupplerblog.com

All statements, opinions, pricing, and ideas herein are believed to be reliable, truthful and accurate to the best of the Stuppler & Company’s knowledge at this time.  Stuppler & Company disclaims and is not liable for any claims or losses which may be incurred by third parties while relying on information published herein.  Individuals should not look at this publication as giving finance or investment advice or information for their individual suitability.  All readers are advised to independently verify all representations made herein or by its representatives for your individual suitability before making your investment or collecting decisions.

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