Weekly Market Report 11/23/15

Links to recent informative articles on precious metals and rare coins:

China’s yuan takes another step towards SDR basket inclusion

Gold remains the best insurance for a crisis

Chinese savers turn to Gold as rest of the world exits holdings

This Week’s Headlines:

Gold
How do I feel about the Gold price?
What do I expect to see for Gold before the end of 2015?
Numismatics
Platinum
Silver
Recommended Investment Commitment and Diversification

GOLD

Gold closed last Friday at $1,076.30 down $4.60 per ounce for the week and $64.80 since the beginning of November. Last week, Gold never reached the important $1,100 per ounce resistance level. On Wednesday the bears where able to reach a new 2015 low of $1,062 per ounce on the CME’s commodity exchange December contract, with sizeable trading volume. Last week’s Gold trading was very disappointing considering the Paris terrorist attack after the markets closed that Friday (11/13). If the Gold price was under the Gold bull’s control, it would have quickly rallied back above $1,100 per ounce on heavy volume last Monday. The Gold bears are definitely in control of the short term direction of the Gold price.

Today: This morning the U.S. Dollar approaches a new 10-year high versus the Euro. This, combined with the current trend, has caused the Gold price to hit $1,066.80 per ounce.

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How do I feel about the Gold price?

In recent conversations with a few of my long term clients, I was accused of being negative on the direction of the Gold price. Nothing can be further from the truth. Let me say in no uncertain terms, my feeling about the long term outlook for Gold hasn’t changed since I wrote my 40-page booklet last year titled, "GOLD: REAL MONEY, Your Ultimate Protection Against Inflation and Deflation.” Please read this informative booklet at www.coinmag.com or email me and request a copy.

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What do I expect to see for Gold before the end of 2015?

The bears have control of the world’s Gold exchanges, not the physical markets. They short rallies and cover on dips and this strategy has been very profitable for the past few years. After talking with a few of these professional bears, I believe that this strategy will soon change because the fundamentals are becoming critically bullish. Exchange supplies are at record low levels, demand from central banks and the public have never been stronger, and the U.S. Dollar will weaken if the Federal Reserve raises rates next month.

By year-end I expect to see a classic Intra-Day reversal in the Gold and Silver prices. Gold will bottom out, hitting a new 5-year low (above $1,000 per ounce) with very heavy futures exchange trading volume. Similar activity will happen on the U.S. stock market with GLD (the ETF paper Gold product). This will cause margin calls and stop loss selling, allowing the professionals to cover their short sales with a nice profit and go long on Gold. A classic Intra-Day reversal is very bullish for the price of Gold and is the sign the market has bottomed out and is heading higher.

If I am correct, there are a few aggressive strategies that I will start addressing next week. One of the strategies I will be addressing is to consider taking a long term capital loss on your Gold and Silver holdings. If you have 2015 profits in your Stocks, Bonds, Real Estate, or other investments, you can off-set the gains and thus pay no income tax. You can then re-purchase your Gold and Silver with a much lower cost basis. I will provide more details next week along with the name of a credible accountant who understands precious metal investments. In the meantime, please see if you have any profitable long term investments you can off-set.

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Numismatics

When I discuss numismatics, it includes four categories:

1. Investment quality PCGS/NGC certified Gold & Silver U.S. Coins in the $2,500 to $50,000 price area: This market has been quiet, with light volume and price volatility since the August 2015 ANA convention in Chicago.
2. Investment quality PCGS/NGC certified Gold & Silver Rarities worth over $50,000: This market has been thin in product, but when they do appear, the coins sell for record prices.
3. Semi-Numismatic Pre-1933 European and U.S. Gold coins: Due to the strength of the U.S. Dollar, the premiums on these popular investments are trading at their lowest premiums in years. These are an extraordinary Gold bullion plus investment vehicle.
4. Popular Gold, Silver, and Platinum new issue (1986 to 2015) U.S. coins graded MS70 or Proof-70 by PCGS or NGC: These new issues are gaining an increasingly larger share of the new collector marketplace. Since many of their prices are based on the spot Gold and Silver price, they are currently available at very attractive prices.

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Platinum

For most of 2015, the spot price of Platinum has traded at a discount to the Gold spot price. This has only happened four times in the past twenty years, and Platinum rarely stays at a discount to Gold for more than a year. Platinum closed last week at $856 per ounce, and 1oz Platinum Maple Leafs are trading at an amazing $200 discount to the 1oz Gold Maple Leafs. The Canadian Platinum Maple Leaf is the best bullion coin on the market, with the lowest premium over spot Platinum.

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SILVER

Silver continued its recent decline, closing the week at $14.09 per ounce on Friday, down $0.11 per ounce for the week, and down $1.47 since the start of November. Silver trading was clearly in the hands of the bears last week, reaching a low of $13.99 on Wednesday.

Please read my 2015 expectation about “classic Intra-Day reversal” in the What do I expect to see for Gold before the end of 2015? section above. I believe that, like Gold, Silver will also see this classic Intra-Day reversal happen. I can only guess as to whether Gold or Silver will see it first, but I strongly believe it will happen before year end.

Today: Silver sold off with Gold this morning, reaching a low of $13.90 per ounce. At that point fresh bargain buyers appeared and quickly rallied the price back up to $14.10 per ounce.

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Recommended Investment Commitment and Diversification:

Precious Metal commitment: Minimum of 30% of investment capital

Diversification:  Gold 50%, Silver 40%, Platinum & Palladium 10%

Diversification includes 50% in long term investment quality rare coins and 50% short term bullion products.

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REMEMBER THE BLOG

If you want to be updated on what is happening in the Gold, Silver, and Rare Coin markets any weekday, our company offers a daily blog Monday through Friday at www.stupplerblog.com

All statements, opinions, pricing, and ideas herein are believed to be reliable, truthful and accurate to the best of the Stuppler & Company’s knowledge at this time.  Stuppler & Company disclaims and is not liable for any claims or losses which may be incurred by third parties while relying on information published herein.  Individuals should not look at this publication as giving finance or investment advice or information for their individual suitability.  All readers are advised to independently verify all representations made herein or by its representatives for your individual suitability before making your investment or collecting decisions.

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