UBS Doubles Down on Gold, Ups Its Forecast Again!

(September 30, 2019 - Simon Constable)

The usually-conservative Swiss bank UBS has upped its forecast for the price of gold for the second time in less than two months.

Now it says the price for the yellow metal could reach as high as $1,730 a troy ounce next year, up $50 from an August forecast, a recent UBS report states. The note last month pointed to the possibility of $1,680 over the same timeframe.

If gold did soar that far it would be 17% above the recent price of $1,469.

The UBS report explains:

• “An environment of negative and lower-for-longer real rates, slowing growth with downside risks, and elevated uncertainty strengthens the case for holding strategic gold allocations.”

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The bullish move comes after a brutal September where the price tumbled from a high around $1,553.

Negative interest rates are only a part of the bullish case, UBS says.

It also points to the fact that gold prices are not whipsawing around. Instead they appear to be moving in measured steps, albeit downwards lately.

The report notes that ETF holdings, such as those in the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) have been growing steadily.

For instance, the Gold Shares fund held 890 metric tons of the metal at the beginning of September versus 923 tons on Friday, according to the GoldShares website.

The other bullish blessing is that most of the investor love for the metal has not come from individual investors. Individuals are well-known for buying and selling assets of any kind at precisely the wrong time. That means that their relative absence from gold investing is a good thing for investors who want to see the price of bullion rally.

“[...] participation so far has largely been limited to institutional investors and the official sector,” the report says.

The official sector usually refers to central banks such as the Russian Central Bank.

A further boost could come from China the report says.

Risks?

There are risks, according to the UBS report.

Notably, the U.S.-China trade war could get resolved, interest rates could rise, and the global economy could improve, the report explains.