Barry Stuppler

Gold is seen by most as a safe-haven. If equity markets are in turmoil, “buy gold,” we always hear. Gold bulls are currently predicting gold to move over $2000 an ounce by year end. Some of the gold bull’s thesis goes something like this:

Italy, Greece, and eventually Spain will cause a European end-game scenario. The default of bigger European countries will cause the European Central Bank to force money into the system in the form of a massive bailout, mainly being a dovish monetary policy.

The fears of contagion will spread throughout the continent and harm the economic outlook globally, including much harm to the United States. As the crisis unfolds, investors will flock more to gold than the U.S. dollar, as the United States will be in a similar mess. (This is a quick thesis.)

However ....

Physical gold will outsell ETFs by 500 per cent this year, Standard Bank’s Walter de Wet told the 8th Dubai City of Gold Conference today. Two years ago the position was completely reversed with physical gold sales running at only 20 per cent of ETFs.

‘It’s a complete flip from ETFs to physical gold,’ he said. ‘And it seems to reflect people’s lack of trust in financial systems and the shift in investment flows towards Asia and the Middle East’....

Chinese gold imports from Hong Kong, a proxy for the country’s overall overseas buying, leapt to a record high in September, when monthly purchases matched almost half that for the whole of 2010.

The buying spree follows a sharp drop in the price of the precious metal. After hitting a nominal all-time high of $1,920.30 a troy ounce in September, gold fell to a three-month low of $1,534 an ounce later in the month. Chinese investors snapped up the metal as prices fell....

Whilst many may argue that gold is an inflation hedge and therefore inflation is bullish for gold, in reality the dynamics at play here are not that simple.

In our view, gold is a currency. Therefore fluctuations in its price are largely based on its perceived value relative to other currencies. We would not suggest that its role as an inflation hedge is a primary reason for being long gold, since there are far more direct and efficient ways to hedge against inflation risk in this modern financial environment. We do however see currency devaluation as a primary reason to....