BOTH GOLD & SILVER SET RECORD HIGHS, THEN SEE MASSIVE SELLING

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I’m having a difficult time wrapping my head around what I saw last Thursday and Friday during Gold and Silver trading on many of the world’s largest commodity exchanges.

Last Friday’s Gold exchange trading was record-breaking. On the U.S. CME Group Exchange alone, the April Gold futures contracts traded over 1 million 100-ounce Gold contracts, totaling 100 million ounces of Gold.

Last week started with the Gold price at $4,980 per ounce and reached a high of $5,585 in overseas trading early Thursday morning. Then all hell broke loose after the announcement that U.S. President Trump would appoint inflation hawk Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman. This news triggered a sharp correction after precious metals rallied to record highs on Thursday. Mr. Warsh has stated numerous times that interest rates should not be lowered, as doing so does not curb inflation. Financial analysts had expected President Trump to select a new Fed Chair who favored lowering interest rates. This surprise announcement drove the Gold price down to a low of $4,691 before rallying back to close at $4,882 per ounce on Friday. Gold was down $98 for the week, but $703, or 12.5 percent, off the high.

The big question is what happens now?
There is the belief “never try to catch a falling knife.” Looking at the long-term Gold chart, that would suggest a move down to the $4,500 per ounce level. Exchange margin calls could cause further selling when Monday trading opens.

Then there is the belief that Gold’s fundamentals seen over the past few years will return and push Gold back above $5,000 per ounce within a few weeks. I do not think many of the world’s largest central banks will pass up this opportunity to spend U.S. Dollars and buy Gold at these prices. The U.S. continues to fuel global geopolitical uncertainty, and the trade deal reached over the weekend between the UK and India is one sign of that.

Gold will likely test the $4,500 long-term support level during this period of high volatility, but I believe it will begin building a firm base between $5,000 and $5,300 by the end of February.

Today: This morning, Gold briefly broke below the $4,500 support level during trading in India, reaching $4,404 before seeing major buying in London, which immediately drove the price back above $4,500 per ounce. Gold continued to move higher in London, rising back above the $4,700 level. During late London trading, Gold reached $4,885 before U.S. markets opened. When the U.S. market opened, Gold quickly dropped to a low of $4,680 due to margin call selling. Gold opened in the U.S. between $4,600 and $4,740, then began trading very actively.

As volatile as Gold trading was last week, Silver trading was more than twice as bad. Silver hit a high of $121.70 early Thursday, then moved sharply lower on Friday, reaching a low of $73.60 per ounce before closing the week at $85.15, down $18 per ounce.

I believe Silver will rally back to $90 per ounce by this coming weekend, helped by Gold’s recovery. Silver suffered a worse price decline than Gold and will need time to settle down and work through margin calls. However, Silver’s fundamentals, while not as strong as Gold’s, remain solid, and Silver should show excellent support above $80 per ounce. Silver should then trade between $90 and $100 to build a firm base by the end of February. Remember, Silver moved from $70 on January 1st to $121.60 on January 29th without consolidating gains or building a base.

Today: Like Gold, Silver reached today’s low during trading in India at $71.36, then started moving higher in London. Silver moved back above $80 per ounce in London on excellent demand, reaching $88.06. As the U.S. market opened, heavy margin call liquidation pushed Silver lower to $75.50 before serious buying emerged.

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Barry Stuppler has been a professional numismatist for over 60 years and is considered one the nation’s foremost experts in rare coins and precious metals. Mr. Stuppler is a past President of the American Numismatic Association (ANA) and Professional Numismatists Guild (PNG). He is currently chairman of the Federal and California State Gold & Silver Political Action Committees, and president of the
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