Gold & Silver Explode Higher And Higher Setting New Highs
| Stuppler & Company is proud to deliver this Weekly Market Report (WMR). The report gives you my overview of the prior week’s precious metal and rare coin market activity and news. In each WMR I share the current status of Gold and Silver along with their support and resistance levels. |
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This Week's Headlines: |
Gold reached a new all-time high last Wednesday of $1,981 per ounce and closed the week at $1,962, up $65 per ounce. Gold is definitely on a roll and has increased for eight straight weeks.
Last week I explained what is driving the increase in the Gold price. Now, I want to share why I think Gold is going a lot higher. To understand Gold cycles, a little history is necessary. Looking at the dramatic increase in the U.S. national debt is an excellent indicator of the diminished buying power of the U.S. dollar. The following is a summary of what has happened in the past when Gold set all-time highs.
1976-1979 (national debt in 1976 was $620 billion)
December 31, 1976, Gold was $134.50. By January 21, 1980 Gold reached an all-time record high of $850 per ounce. This represents a 632% increase in a little over 3 years. Why? When Jimmy Carter became president in January 1977, the inflation rate was only 5.2%. Jimmy Carter took office during a period of "stagflation". Then the U.S. economy experienced a combination of high inflation and slow economic growth during the next four years. Carter’s policies took the inflation rate to 13.9% when President Reagan took over in January of 1980.
2008 to 2011 (national debt in 2008 was $10 trillion)
After Gold reached $850 in January of 1980, it fell to $274 in the year 2000. Then Gold gradually moved back to $800 in 2008. Then came the global financial crisis between September and November of 2008. Trillions of dollars/euros/yen and yuan were issued to bail out countries and financial institutions (sound similar?). During that time, the term “quantitative easing” became popular as interest rates dropped and the economies collapsed. Gold was trading under $900 in late 2008, but, by September 2011 Gold more than doubled, reaching $1,923 per ounce, and an all-time record high.
What have we learned from Gold’s recent price history?
After a financial crisis, the price of Gold increases over a 3-year cycle, with the price rallying over 100% and makes a new all-time high. I lived through both of these Gold rallies, and the current pandemic disaster will cause a worse economic and financial disaster than we have ever seen.
2020 to 2023 (National Debt today $26.6 Trillion)
During January 2020, Gold was trading in the $1,500 per ounce area. Then the COVID-19 pandemic hit the world. Central banks and governments around the globe started providing trillions in massive rescue packages to deal with the problems. The uncertainty and lower interest rates started to fuel increased demand for Gold.
By March, the demand for popular physical Gold items was causing many of the world’s leading mints to be back-ordered. The combination of increasing demand and dealing with COVID-19 restrictions resulted in shortages in products and higher premiums on newly issued bullion coins.
A falling U.S. dollar and increasing geopolitical tensions over the past few months have continued to drive Gold demand. Plus, hopes for any speedy recovery from this pandemic is gone. Problems caused by the COVID-19 crisis will continue for years, regardless of the additional trillions that will be provided and after any vaccine is distributed.
What do I see next for Gold?
Based on the history and current events that I have shared above, I believe that we will see Gold reach at least $2,200 per ounce this year, and regardless of the results of the November election, we will see $3,000 before the beginning of 2023. Gold will not go straight up. We will see rallies followed by consolidation, base building, and testing support levels. ENJOY THE RIDE.
Today: In overnight trading in Asia and Europe, and early trading in the U.S., Gold has traded between $1,960 and $1,980 per ounce. Considering the recent rally, this is an outstanding base building and consolidation for the Gold price.
Silver reached a seven-year high of $26.25 last Tuesday and sold off quickly, reaching a low of $22.45 per ounce. The volatility in the Silver market has been extraordinary. Silver closed last week at $24.20 per ounce, up another $1.37 per ounce. On Tuesday, the trading volume on the popular September 2020 CME 5,000-ounce contract reached 254,601 contracts, the highest it’s been in years. Last week, the Silver price found good support above the $22 level. The Silver-to-Gold ratio has dropped to 81-to-1.
Today: In overnight trading in Asia and Europe, Silver found strong support at the $24 per ounce level. Plus, the Silver price stayed between $24 and $24.50 all day. Like Gold, this is excellent consolidation for the Silver price.
This week there are two numismatic events (not conventions). These numismatic meetings are happening in Las Vegas, NV, and Dallas, TX. There will be a limited bourse dealer trading floor and two numismatic auctions. These events will give me an update on the state of the numismatic market. I expect to see a shortage of material on the trading floor and prices at the auctions to be at the high end of the market.
Demand for Gold/Silver bullion coins is excellent due to higher price and concerns over devaluation of the world’s currencies. Plus, collector demand for PCGS/NGC certified rare coins ranging from $300 to $50,000 has been extraordinary. Prices are moving higher, as availability of graded coins is getting harder and harder to find. Normally the summer months would slow down collector demand, but with the pandemic, collectors are home and, on their computers, buying.
| Thank you Barry + David Stuppler All statements, opinions, pricing, and ideas herein are believed to be reliable, truthful and accurate to the best of Stuppler & Company’s knowledge at this time. Stuppler & Company disclaims and is not liable for any claims or losses which may be incurred by third parties while relying on information published herein. Individuals should not look at this publication as giving finance or investment advice or information for their individual suitability. All readers are advised to independently verify all representations made herein or by its representatives for your individual suitability before making your investment or collecting decisions. |













