UNCERTAINTY LEADS TO VOLATILITY IN GOLD & SILVER MARKETS

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Uncertainty leads to increased volatility

During the past four weeks, Gold has traded between $3,900 and $4,200 as it builds a firm base above the key $4,000 per ounce support level. As Gold moved higher this year, I saw similar bases building at the $3,000 and $3,500 levels.

During the past four weeks, we have seen a lot of trading volatility in the precious metals markets. Gold closed Friday at $4,069 per ounce, down $15 for the week.

The five major issues that have been contributing to this volatility are;

1. 1. The value and declining usage of the U.S. Dollar in world commerce.
      I expect that the current growing economic and geopolitical uncertainty will continue driving many of the world’s largest central banks to diversify their holdings by adding more Gold. At the same time, America’s ongoing trade war has pushed many other nations to reduce their reliance on the U.S. dollar and move into other currencies and precious metals without geopolitical risk. This is the prime reason that the U.S. Dollar has dropped 10% since the beginning of 2025.

1. 1. Interest rates of major countries, including the U.S.
      The European Central Bank has already delivered multiple cuts this year and is expected to continue. With the exceptions of Japan and Russia, most other major countries have been lowering interest rates to help stimulate the weakness in their economies caused by increased tariffs. The U.S. lowered interest rates in November and is expected to lower them again within the next few months.

1. 1. World Gold Council’s (WGC) reports on record buying by Central banks
      The WGC reports that Global central banks, led by China, have increased their Gold reserves by roughly 1,000 tons in each of the last three years. The primary buyers have been China, Poland, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, India, and Turkey.

1. 1. China’s De-Dollarization policy
      China is the world’s biggest producer and consumer of Gold, it is also the least transparent, leaving analysts to run their own numbers based on import data, guesswork, and tips. Analysts believe China has secretly purchased up 10x more Gold than it shows, adding to its reserves. China believes it can replace the U.S. Dollar with the Chinese Yuan in world commerce and as the primary reference currency for trade.

1. 1. The possibility of the IMF deciding to sell Gold at the Johannesburg meeting
      Going into last weekend, there were concerns that the G20 meeting would recommend that the IMF sells Gold to fund debt relief for low-income African countries. No recommendation came out of last week’s G20 meeting. The IMF can only sell Gold outright at prevailing market prices and requires an 85% majority vote from its Executive Board for any such transaction.

In addition to the above, On Nov. 19th 2025, Senator Mike Lee introduced S.3218. This legislation called the Gold Reserve Transparency Act would require a full assay, inventory, and audit of all United States Gold holdings. The bill would require an upgrade of the purity of all Gold, to meet global market standard and conduct subsequent audits every 5 years. If this passes in Congress, it could only be a plus for the Gold price.

Key U.S. Economic data to watch this week:
The week of November 24th to 26th 2025

• Tuesday, Nov. 25: Sept. U.S. Retail Sales (delayed), PPI year to year, Nov. Consumer Confidence
• Wednesday, Nov. 26: Initial Jobless Claims, Sept. Durable Goods (delayed), U.S. Trade Deficit

Today: Gold reached a low this morning in China of $4,040 per ounce before finding buyers in London and the U.S., which took the price up to $4,100. The U.S. Dollar trading at a 6-week high put pressure on the Gold price in early trading. Optimism by analysts on a possible interest rate cut in December was helping Gold buyers.

Last week, Silver traded above and below the key $50 per ounce support level. Silver has reached a high of $52.15 and a low of $48.00, as it continues to build a firm base.
The trading volume for Silver in many of the world’s largest commodity exchanges was moderate, with the exception of Friday, when Silver reached a low of $48 per ounce in London and demand was very strong.

Like I have said numerous times, Silver needs to stay above the key $50 per ounce level to remain bullish and move toward $60 per ounce by early 2026. Last Friday, Silver closed at $49.93 per ounce, down $0.77 for the week.

The Silver-to-Gold ratio is currently at 81.49-to-1.

Today: Silver reached a low of $49.67 during trading in China and India, but found strength in London and the U.S. and moved back above $50 per ounce. The markets continue to test that key $50 level and Silver is finding fresh buying.

Since the price of Gold moved over $3,500 per ounce, many popular U.S. Gold coins have lost premium. Certified $20 Gold Saints and Liberties are trading near the Gold value. I believe this is an extraordinary investment opportunity and have done an analysis on rarity, price and PCGS/NGC population differential. This analysis helps identify that MS65 $20 Gold Liberties and MS66 $20 Gold Saint Gaudens are clearly undervalued with the price of Gold over $4,000 per ounce. If you wish to see the hard data, just email me.

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Barry Stuppler has been a professional numismatist for over 60 years and is considered one the nation’s foremost experts in rare coins and precious metals. Mr. Stuppler is a past President of the American Numismatic Association (ANA) and Professional Numismatists Guild (PNG). He is currently chairman of the Federal and California State Gold & Silver Political Action Committees, and president of the
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