Gold Drifts Higher As Dollar Slips Ahead Of Cenbanks’ Verdicts

(January 23, 2024 - Reuters)

Gold prices rose on Tuesday, as the US dollar edged lower while investors awaited interest rate decisions from a number of central banks and a slew of economic data in the United States this week.

Spot gold rose 0.3% to $2,026.19 per ounce by 0350 GMT.

The US dollar index fell 0.1%, making greenback-priced gold more attractive to other currency holders.

Gold is treading water until it gets the next clues as to when the Federal Reserve may pull the trigger on the first rate cut, Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said.

The Bank of Japan kept ultra-low interest rates intact in a widely expected move. The European Central Bank (ECB) meets on Thursday and is expected to hold monetary policy steady.

Federal Reserve officials last week said the US central bank needs more inflation data in hand before any rate cut judgment could be made and that the baseline for cuts to start was in the third quarter. Traders priced in five rate cuts for this year, down from six cuts two weeks ago.

The first cut, initially expected in March, is now expected in May with an 87% probability, according to LSEG’s interest-rate probability app IRPR.

Gold prices fall

Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding bullion.

“If central banks continue to counter the prevailing narrative that rate cuts will occur sooner rather than later, this could pressure the gold price from a yield perspective,” KCM Trade’s Waterer said.

Investors will also be watching out for US flash PMI report on Wednesday, fourth-quarter advance GDP estimates due on Thursday and personal consumption expenditures data on Friday, before the Fed’s next meeting on Jan. 30-31.